Goodbye Ruby - Hello Earth

  • Thread starter Christophe Mckeon
  • Start date
E

Eleanor McHugh

As before ... exactly where does that statistic come from? What is its
source? It's very easy to throw around numbers that have been tossed
out
- but many if not most statistics (from both sides) are simply made
up.

As I pointed out in the previous post, there are over 30,000
scientists
who signed a statement that they do *NOT* believe that. There is no
comparative list of those who believe that it is. In and of itself,
that
doesn't say that it isn't. After all, there was once a vast majority
of
scientists who believed the earth was the center of the universe.

This is my main complaint with this type of argument. Those in the
argument - on BOTH sides - seem to be incapable of rational thought.
They hear a statement and don't question it. Worse, they accept - or
reject - facts just because it happens to support their personal bias.

Most scientists are not impartial and the further one moves from
empirical study into model-driven simulation, the less credence one
should give to any theory.

My main criticism of climate science's attempts to model global
warming is that it's fundamentally flawed in its methodology. The
climate is a chaotic non-linear system and hence the only way to make
accurate predictions is to understand its exact starting conditions.
Instead researchers take patchy historical data over a brief
geological period and feed that into incredibly complex climate models
to produce predictions.

Am I the only one reminded of Ptolemy's model of the heavens? A
stunning intellectual achievement, but as Copernicus demonstrated so
effectively, a complete fiction which prevented astronomy from
progressing for a good fourteen hundred years.


Ellie

Eleanor McHugh
Games With Brains
http://slides.games-with-brains.net
 
E

Eleanor McHugh

What utopian system do you favor that *does* exist, or *has* existed
in a
form that didn't end up failing in a truly epic manner (or even with a
pathetic whimper)?

Although as anyone who's read Utopia will know, Moore was making a
mockery of the notion that all things could be directed with the
perfection of clockwork. He was the Orwell of the sixteenth century ;)


Ellie

Eleanor McHugh
Games With Brains
http://slides.games-with-brains.net
 
R

Robert Dober

l.

If a billion years isn't long enough to Dyson sphere the Sun it's because
we're either a failed evolutionary experiment and no longer around (more
than likely) or our descendants have come up with a better option.
This is a joke, right, well probably not.
I always thought that a Dyson sphere was Gene Rodenberry's idea, but
seems there has been some serious thoughts about it.
BTW if there were any Dyson spheres out there, should we not be able
to detect them already in a certain distance? I mean would that not
cause some anomalies between emissions and gravitational behavior of
the neighboring stars? Or is this shadowed by the gravitational
overkill of the "central black hole"?
Cheeers
Robert
Ellie

Eleanor McHugh
Games With Brains
http://slides.games-with-brains.net



--=20
Si tu veux construire un bateau ...
Ne rassemble pas des hommes pour aller chercher du bois, pr=E9parer des
outils, r=E9partir les t=E2ches, all=E9ger le travail=85 mais enseigne aux
gens la nostalgie de l=92infini de la mer.

If you want to build a ship, don=92t herd people together to collect
wood and don=92t assign them tasks and work, but rather teach them to
long for the endless immensity of the sea.
 
R

Ruby Student

This is a joke, right, well probably not.
I always thought that a Dyson sphere was Gene Rodenberry's idea, but
seems there has been some serious thoughts about it.
BTW if there were any Dyson spheres out there, should we not be able
to detect them already in a certain distance? I mean would that not
cause some anomalies between emissions and gravitational behavior of
the neighboring stars? Or is this shadowed by the gravitational
overkill of the "central black hole"?
Cheeers
Robert




--
Si tu veux construire un bateau ...
Ne rassemble pas des hommes pour aller chercher du bois, pr=E9parer des
outils, r=E9partir les t=E2ches, all=E9ger le travail=85 mais enseigne au= x
gens la nostalgie de l=92infini de la mer.

If you want to build a ship, don=92t herd people together to collect
wood and don=92t assign them tasks and work, but rather teach them to
long for the endless immensity of the sea.
O sea, en lugar de darle un pez a un individuo, ense=F1alo a pescar!

--=20
Ruby Student
 
C

Christophe Mckeon

I have a degree in physics and that leads me to believe that all
phenomena can be reduced to a simplistic representation, if they can
be reduced at all. That's a fundamental tenet of the scientific method
which I apply to both the development of software and to analysis of
everything else.

it is not a fundamental tenet of the scientific method, it is one
possible modality of doing science, but there are others. i would argue
that under the current circumstances in which humanity and the rest of
the natural world find themselves a more holistic, systems
theoretical/ecological approach would be far more appropriate.
 
E

Eleanor McHugh

This is a joke, right, well probably not.
I always thought that a Dyson sphere was Gene Rodenberry's idea, but
seems there has been some serious thoughts about it.

The clue is in the name: Dyson spheres were hypothesised by Freeman
Dyson and I believe the general concept was first popularised by Larry
Niven in his Ringworld novels. I was being somewhat flippant as I
doubt humanity will be here in a billion years, but if we are it would
speak poorly of us if we failed to advance our technology sufficiently
to fully utilise the energy output by our nearest star. After all, it
only took a billion years or thereabouts for the earliest multi-
cellular life-forms to evolve into modern humans...
BTW if there were any Dyson spheres out there, should we not be able
to detect them already in a certain distance? I mean would that not
cause some anomalies between emissions and gravitational behavior of
the neighboring stars? Or is this shadowed by the gravitational
overkill of the "central black hole"?

It might. However whether or not we will ever detect evidence of one
is dependant on the probability of a particular chain of events:

1. life exists elsewhere in the universe;
2. that life has thrown up an active intelligence;
3. that intelligence is sufficiently social to survive for a
significant geological timeframe;
4. the resulting society develops sufficiently advanced technology to
reengineer the structure of their solar system;
5. having achieved that level of technology they then have the will to
use it;
6. and all this has already happened.


Ellie

Eleanor McHugh
Games With Brains
http://slides.games-with-brains.net
 
R

Robert Dober

The clue is in the name: Dyson spheres were hypothesised by Freeman Dyson
and I believe the general concept was first popularised by Larry Niven in
his Ringworld novels. I was being somewhat flippant as I doubt humanity will
be here in a billion years, but if we are it would speak poorly of us if we
failed to advance our technology sufficiently to fully utilise the energy
output by our nearest star. After all, it only took a billion years or
thereabouts for the earliest multi-cellular life-forms to evolve into modern
humans...


It might. However whether or not we will ever detect evidence of one is
dependant on the probability of a particular chain of events:

1. life exists elsewhere in the universe;
2. that life has thrown up an active intelligence;
3. that intelligence is sufficiently social to survive for a significant
geological timeframe;
4. the resulting society develops sufficiently advanced technology to
reengineer the structure of their solar system;
5. having achieved that level of technology they then have the will to use
it;
6. and all this has already happened.
I challenge this ;), a Dyson sphere might be the evolutionary response
of spacebound nonconscient lifeforms.
Now that would be a deception.

BTW
We are not OT here, the same lifeform has created a biological virtual
machine for Ruby, completely by chance!!!!
Can you believe it?

Cheers
Robert
 
E

Eleanor McHugh

I challenge this ;), a Dyson sphere might be the evolutionary response
of spacebound nonconscient lifeforms.
Now that would be a deception.

Fred Hoyle proposed something similar in the form of intelligent dust
clouds which I've always found appealing.
BTW
We are not OT here, the same lifeform has created a biological virtual
machine for Ruby, completely by chance!!!!
Can you believe it?

I'm willing to believe that if a Dyson sphere evolved naturally that
it would be Ruby compatible :)


Ellie

Eleanor McHugh
Games With Brains
http://slides.games-with-brains.net
 
E

Eleanor McHugh

there were some comments which along the lines of, just let
'evolution'
happen, don't get in the way. it is difficult to argue with such a
position. when somebody says we must all die, while bowing down to the
alter of this so called 'evolution' which is essentially just a
culture
of plunder gone rampant, and an incredible hubris vis a vis our
rudimentary technologies. i just consider that one of the many
sociopathologies of civilization, or perhaps a coping strategy of
particular individuals who are educated enough to understand the data
science is feeding us, but not knowing which way to turn for
solutions,
intellectualize and abstract away the very real dread which most sane
human beings feel when felt with the prospect of annihilation. human
beings lived for hundreds of thousands of years before the culture of
plunder took over and now threatens all of our lives.

I wish you well with your endeavours as I'm sure on a personal level
that permaculture is rewarding (at least based on my experiences of
growing my own vegetables and brewing my own alcohol) so please don't
take this as an "I disagree with you so you're an idiot" comment
because it isn't, but I think you've fallen for the same golden-age
myth that's haunted all human civilisations since at least the
invention of writing.

Human beings lived for hundreds of thousands of years before their
numbers were sufficient for our basic instincts to start making a
significant impact on a global scale, but if you look at the ecology
of particular regions you'll see that long before settlement and
domestication we were already a primary mover of our environment.
Thanks to our prolific use of tools we happen to share an edge that
you usually only see in short-lived, fast-breeding generalists such as
rodents which ensures that we can exploit an incredibly broad range of
ecological opportunities as well as being able to define new ecology
such as the current petrochemical-driven agrimonoculture.

Incidentally I agree with you that that is unsustainable, and perhaps
permaculture or any of a broad range of alternative farming
technologies will out-compete it. However I see no moral imperative to
preferring one over the other as evolutionary pressures are by
definition circumstantial and amoral.

Were the green lobby to abandon the intense moral zealotry that so
often dominates their arguments and instead focus on that old
Christian concept of "do as you would be done by" - leading by example
and using the tools of free market economics to make their point - I
believe there would be a much better chance of alternative
agricultural practices becoming dominant. There also needs to be an
abandonment of the social agenda prevalent in the Western world that
sees farming subsidies as an important role of national and
supranational trade blocs as it creates many of the market distortions
which have created current circumstances.

On your other point, I'm a natural pessimist and tend to believe that
if something can go wrong it will go wrong therefore in most
circumstances the best course of action is to do nothing. If that's a
socipathology, then it's one I share with the medical profession (i.e.
first do no harm).


Ellie

Eleanor McHugh
Games With Brains
http://slides.games-with-brains.net
 
E

Eleanor McHugh

it is not a fundamental tenet of the scientific method, it is one
possible modality of doing science, but there are others. i would
argue
that under the current circumstances in which humanity and the rest of
the natural world find themselves a more holistic, systems
theoretical/ecological approach would be far more appropriate.

I'm not entirely sure how that conflicts with "all phenomena can be
reduced to a simplistic representation, if they can be reduced at all"
but would be happy to hear your thoughts on alternative approaches.


Ellie

Eleanor McHugh
Games With Brains
http://slides.games-with-brains.net
 
E

Eleanor McHugh

The _weather_ is chaotic. The _climate_ is the walking average,
beneath the turbulence. The point of the Butterfly Effect aphorism
is you _can't_ predict whether the butterfly's wings flapping in
Africa will create a hurricane in the Atlantic, even if you _did_
know how its wings flapped in microscopic detail.

With the starting conditions and the correct model a chaotic system
can be predicted because it is fundamentally deterministic.
With the starting conditions and a set of experimental data the model
is derivable from observation, given sufficient observations.
Without the starting conditions, all bets are off.
However, you can predict trends over time, and you can predict the
effect of forcing (such as more sunspots, or more CO2) on those
trends. For example, Katrina occurred at the peak of a decadal cycle
in hurricane activity. That doesn't mean CO2 didn't have a role...

But conversely it doesn't mean that it did either, or that if it did
its role was the significant factor.
That's the prediction phase of the experiment. Then they confirm
their predictions by correlating them to historical data, such as
ice cores in glaciers containing the predicted amounts of certain
chemicals at certain depths.

If I build a model based upon data for a given timeframe and I make
that model capable of predicting other results for that timeframe I
have an intellectual curiosity. It's only when I can apply that model
globally and still achieve a significant correlation between data and
results that I can promote the underlying hypothesis to the status of
a theory. Looking in from the outside, climate science still appears
to have a long way to go before it achieves that.

This wouldn't matter except that people seem desperate to use these
models to drive public policy for purposes which could much better be
argued on non-apocalyptic grounds.
You have both the history and details wrong. Copernicus did not
_demonstrate_ anything - he simply published the alternate view,
which had already existed. And (the ghost of Carl Sagan
notwithstanding), Ptolemaic models did not "prevent astronomy from
progressing". You could still predict, over time, where Mars and
Jupiter would appear in the skies. That's as old as Astrology.

What Copernicus advanced was a model of orbital motion which placed
the Sun at the centre of the cosmos as opposed to the Earth, with the
distance between the two considered insignificant to the overall size
of the cosmos. It's true that he wasn't the first to posit a sun-
centred model, but to the best of my knowledge he was the first to
accompany it with a mathematical model of the orbital motion involved.
It was this mathematical model which allowed Astronomy and Physics to
develop into the sciences we know today, although arguably it is just
one of a set of correlated historical events including the fall of
Constantinople and the expulsion of the Moorish and Jewish communities
from Spain.

Anyway, I stand by my argument, various rabbit holes, omissions and
over-simplifications not withstanding.


Ellie

Eleanor McHugh
Games With Brains
http://slides.games-with-brains.net
 
C

Christophe Mckeon

Human beings lived for hundreds of thousands of years before their
numbers were sufficient for our basic instincts to start making a
significant impact on a global scale, but if you look at the ecology
of particular regions you'll see that long before settlement and
domestication we were already a primary mover of our environment.

the detrimental effect on ecologies was not linear in nature, there was
a very marked phase transition with the advent of monocultural
agriculture and the city state. human health for instance saw a
pronounced decline during this transition, lives were longer mainly due
to increased physical security, but nutrition suffered and so did the
much more labour intensive lifestyle take it's toll. the hunter
gatherers had developed a way of life which was sustainable, many of
them even practicing explicit population control. since you bring up
myths, civilization has a great many myths that *all* of us live by,
it's time to examine them more thoroughly.
as well as being able to define new ecology
such as the current petrochemical-driven agrimonoculture.

monoculture is by definition not an ecology. ecology is about diversity
and connection. monoculture is about obliteration and alienation.
whether we are talking about agricultural or human culture.
However I see no moral imperative to
preferring one over the other as evolutionary pressures are by
definition circumstantial and amoral.

one of the myths for instance is that the natural and social worlds only
work by way of competition. a reductionist cartesian analytical model
may very well be to blame. it is obvious to anybody with any kind of
feel for how ecosystems actually work, that the forces at play are as
much about cooperation as competition. it is not at all surprising that
the popular view (read mythology) of the natural world in industrialized
societies see only competition at the exclusion of any other kind of
analysis, judging by it's treatment of cultures which do not share a
similar world view. my hope is that as energy and resources become
scarcer that cooperation as a model for human culture begins to make a
great deal more sense, just as cooperative behaviour does in ecosystems
in energy decline.
Were the green lobby to abandon the intense moral zealotry that so
often dominates their arguments and instead focus on that old
Christian concept of "do as you would be done by"

of course many of the 'green lobby' do in fact walk the walk, but i
think that what the green movement in general is starting to realize is
that the green problem is actually a cultural one first and foremost, so
i think that you can expect to see an increase in ethical discourse not
a decrease. what is it that you have against ethics exactly?
There also needs to be an
abandonment of the social agenda prevalent in the Western world that
sees farming subsidies as an important role of national and
supranational trade blocs as it creates many of the market distortions
which have created current circumstances.

the current agricultural system in europe for example survives by way of
subsidies not in essence because of some kind of cultural imperative,
but because it could not do so otherwise. it is just so ridiculously
inefficient.
i agree about the abandonment of subsidies, but that can only be
achieved through a major agricultural revolution with a move towards
self-sustaining, low-input and ecologically sound techniques, not simply
by lifting the subsidies. the problem here as in so many other places is
corporate hegemony, but also cultural inertia. it is difficult to shake
off 10,000 year old assumptions.
On your other point, I'm a natural pessimist and tend to believe that
if something can go wrong it will go wrong therefore in most
circumstances the best course of action is to do nothing. If that's a
socipathology, then it's one I share with the medical profession (i.e.
first do no harm).

first do no harm, then try to heal.
 
P

Phlip

With the starting conditions and the correct model a chaotic system
can be predicted because it is fundamentally deterministic.
With the starting conditions and a set of experimental data the model
is derivable from observation, given sufficient observations.
Without the starting conditions, all bets are off.

The solution to Zeno's Paradox is the "infinitesmals" concept. Your
paragraph misunderstands the Butterfly Effect. The Effect means that the
deterministic prediction is always impossible because the starting
conditions are always infinitesmal.

Put another way, the only "correct model" is the entire universe, and we are
within it, so we can't use a model, and must look at trends.
 
C

Christophe Mckeon

I wish you well with your endeavours as I'm sure on a personal level
that permaculture is rewarding (at least based on my experiences of
growing my own vegetables and brewing my own alcohol)

i'm glad you enjoyed it. gardening by the way produces about 5 times the
output of food per unit of land than petro-ag. when you also start to do
ecological design and move away from annuals towards primarily
perennials then you can cut out most of the work involved as it is done
by the system for you. the agricultural component of permaculture is
basically that, smart gardening, but it can be scaled up to much larger
systems, like self-sustaining food forests.
 
T

Todd Benson

A lot of people said some interesting things were thrown out. Maybe
some contributors are concerned about a problem that doesn't relate to
the issue. Eleanor is pretty close, as far as I can tell, to
demonstrating that we, as a species, "are" a product of some kind of
evolution, and that we don't have to be scared of it. We just may
well run a race faster than Earth. I agree with that. I agree with
Phlip, too. I also agree with many things Chad and Robert said.

I disagree with the interpretation of chaos theory, and also of
basically non-linear subjects at all that have been mentioned here.

For humans, as a species, to really -- as a whole -- think we have
control over cosmological events is not only pompous, but a severe
look at what we have become.

The first time I heard the Malthusian argument in school, I wrote a
paper about it. I got an F because I disagreed with it.

I'm a bit tired of the "We are creating our own disaster type thing."
It's a vicious circle that almost creates itself.

One thing I've learned during my short time on Earth is that people
will _always_ feel the doomsday coming. Just look at history.

I, for one, am looking to see something like vertical farms.

With that said, I'm also a fan of people doing some permaculture as a
benefit, and not as a stance of how we should live with some sort of
absolution.

Todd
 
C

Christophe Mckeon

One thing I've learned during my short time on Earth is that people
will _always_ feel the doomsday coming. Just look at history.

ok, lets look at history. history is positively strewn with the
shipwrecks of failed civilizations. if you want to talk about humility
then why should we assume that we are immune to the same forces they
were subject to, but only this time on a much greater scale and with a
much weakened biosphere.

on the other hand, never in history has there been a time when the
majority of scientists in multiple fields of study were telling
everybody else that we are in deep doodoo for one reason or another.
that is a completely new phenomenon.
With that said, I'm also a fan of people doing some permaculture as a
benefit, and not as a stance of how we should live with some sort of
absolution.

i am glad to hear that. i agree that doom & gloom in and of itself is
counterproductive, but to honestly face the situation and act upon it is
not. if you do not tell it like it is, then how on earth are you going
to act upon it?

i think that if you take the science seriously, just picking any one of
the problems we are facing, because surely you cannot deny all of them,
and any one of them are quite enough to sink us, then you cannot in good
conscience believe that we are living the right way.

it is not my or anybody else's place to say what the right way is,
that's a job for all of us to decide upon, and there are plenty of
avenues now open for positive/creative action.
 
P

Phlip

ok, lets look at history. history is positively strewn with the
shipwrecks of failed civilizations.

I'm getting in the habit of reading down to the first misappropriation of
sophistry and replying...

For every civilization that failed, it grew at a sustainable rate until it
created a positive population effluence. For example, in the Sacred Valley
region of the Andes, you can count rows of stones - protypical terraces for
farming - going all the way from some valley floors to the peaks of their
mountains. At one time, those valleys were entirely farmed from bottom to
top.

And every one of those failures happened because of a change in the climate.
Rome collapsed not because of overpopulation or high taxes or Christianity
or any historical revisionism like that; it collapsed because a volcano in
the India Ocean created a series of long winters. The global agricultural
bases collapsed.

Historically, civilizations did not collapse because they despoiled their
environments. That's a relatively new phenomenon.

Oh, and the Inka civilization in the Andes collapsed from a smallpox
plague...
 
E

Eleanor McHugh

I'm getting in the habit of reading down to the first
misappropriation of
sophistry and replying...

For every civilization that failed, it grew at a sustainable rate
until it
created a positive population effluence. For example, in the Sacred
Valley
region of the Andes, you can count rows of stones - protypical
terraces for
farming - going all the way from some valley floors to the peaks of
their
mountains. At one time, those valleys were entirely farmed from
bottom to
top.

And every one of those failures happened because of a change in the
climate.
Rome collapsed not because of overpopulation or high taxes or
Christianity
or any historical revisionism like that; it collapsed because a
volcano in
the India Ocean created a series of long winters. The global
agricultural
bases collapsed.

Historically, civilizations did not collapse because they despoiled
their
environments. That's a relatively new phenomenon.

Oh, and the Inka civilization in the Andes collapsed from a smallpox
plague...

As an aside I can highly recommend both "Guns, Germs and Steel" and
"Collapse" by Jared Diamond, "The Physics of Immortality" by Frank
Tipler, "Evolution from Space" by Fred Hoyle and "The Millennial
Project" by Marshal T. Savage - all kind of relevant to this thread
but none of them relevant to Ruby. Also David Keys' "Catastrophe" and
anything by Immanuel Velikovsky (although especially "Earth in
Upheaval") are interesting explorations of the possible effect of
global catastrophes on the course of civilisation.

Oh, and remember to take all of the above with a pinch of salt ;)


Ellie

Eleanor McHugh
Games With Brains
http://slides.games-with-brains.net
 

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