From where I'm from, a foreign language (english) is included in the
national curriculum from the 1st grade, and a second foreign
language from the 7th grade onward.
For the second foreign language, students are free (technically*) to
pick from three available options -- german, french and spanish.
These choices are far from being "obvious", for a number of reasons.
Yet, people still choose and no one is harmed by it.
English as a second language is rapidly being mandated around the world;
what language such students might choose after that is irrelevant to
this discussion since they already know English.
Regarding english-speaking countries, it can be argued that each one
has its glaring obvious choice.
- US: According to wikipedia[1], the country has 45 million people
who speak spanish as a first or second language. If we take into
account that almost all neighbouring countries to the south have
spanish as their official language, spanish does appear to be an
obvious choice.
~95% of Americans speak English on some level, including most native
Spanish-speakers. Legal immigrants must know it to get a visa in the
first place, and their kids are forced to learn it in school. That
leaves only illegal immigrants, and many of them pick up English as well
to avoid detection and/or get higher-paying jobs.
Culturally, I agree that it would be a good to learn Spanish to speak to
our neighbors to the south, but it's a poor economic choice--and
mandating thatt would be political suicide. Learning Portuguese would
be a better economic choice, but Brazilians students are learning
English now, so any benefit there would be short-lived.
- Canada: it has two official languages: english and
french.
Aside from those living in Quebec or working for the govt, there's not
much reason to learn French, since even the Quebecois learn English in
school now.
- UK: even when ignoring their "regional" languages, the
british isles do have significant ties with France and Germany.
.... and France and Germany both mandate English as a second language, so
any benefit to Brits learning those languages would be short-lived.
On top of that, if only less than 6% of the world are native english
speakers while over 14% speak Mandarin[2], in addition to China's
increasing prominence, Mandarin becomes a rather glaring choice.
1.8 billion people speak English, compared to 1.3 billion who speak
Mandarin. Every student in China is now required to learn English, and
it is projected that within a decade China will have more English
speakers than the US itself.
So, Mandarin is rapidly becoming a poor choice as well.
It's not only native languages that matter, especially when we're
discussing what is by far the most popular _second_ language in the
world. See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_language
Also, of over 6,000 languages spoken today, only half are being taught
as a native language to the current generation of kids. A handful of
languages are strong enough today to resist eradication via cohort
replacement, and those languages' native speakers are already learning
English as a second language, so they'll probably get hit in a few more
generations as well when they see they're getting left behind by those
who have already switched.
S