Matt said:
Perhaps. Different things drive the market.
More people are browsing the web using mobile devices now, and they
will probably continue to do so even if the experience sucks. But they
just might change from one site to another if one doesn't work nicely
with their phone and another does. Eventually, this market may be
enough that it starts demanding the web support it. And at that point,
it will.
Mobile *could* alter the landscape. To date the impact of mobile I've
seen has been trivial, albeit a small sample size (my sites). Aside from
minimal traffic, the referrers make it pretty clear most mobile users
are surfing for reference and research -- not so much transactions. I'm
all for letting reference-seekers access our site, but no way I'll be
retooling a site for this traffic at the possible expense of my
transaction-likely traffic (whether that means 'dumbing-down' a page, or
slowing down overall development).
When mobile browsing does become more commercially relevant I suspect
we'll see more mobile versions of websites rather than single websites
trying to accommodate both. That'll be my approach, at least. Nearly all
the content is databased already -- just need to output it in a manner
geared towards mobile devices, and have an economic motive to spend the
resources to do so. I suspect client-side scripting will be used
sparingly on mobile websites for a long time to come as well.
This may be the kind of environment shift that challenges the use of
scripts like jQuery, et al. And it may just grow to be enough to
either force a drop in jQuery use or force jQuery to change to
something more compatible. If this happens, I'm confident that there
will be other options that step up and become available. When and if
that becomes a concern for developers, they'll adapt.
Fair point. I think we're seeing some of that effect already. The JQuery
team announced v1.4 will include a build that caters to iPhone, Android,
Palm Pre and Fennec devices. I'm sure the other libraries have similar
goals (or have already done so). Perhaps some new library, wide of small
in scope, will emerge that serves this market best.
That's the way it's always worked so far. How many people used
horrible MM_* functions for a long time? It fit their needs for a
time, then better options became practical, and people moved on. The
same will surely happen to jQuery, Dojo, Prototype, YUI, etc. It's
just a matter of when and what drives it.
I'd agree all the present libraries will eventually fade. However they
will fade because a new option comes along that provides greater utility
-- they won't disappear because the development community concludes they
must support 99.99% of all users as a basis for their business model.
Maybe better libraries evolve. Maybe browsers add more built-in
functionality that removes library's current advantages. However the
most vocal in this newsgroup keep pushing the mantra it's best to do all
scripting from scratch, and presumably cater towards and test versus an
absurd number of browsers and OS's. That will never happen on a
wide-scale in the present state of Javascript. No fiscal reason to do so.