B
BGB
Smartphone shipments started exceeding PC shipments last year. And
those are all programmable (and does not include feature phones or
tablets).
but, this is because the market has not yet saturated.
PC sales are lower because the market is fairly saturated:
say, one buys a PC in 2007, and it still works fairly well now, so why
buy a new one?... likewise, if one has a laptop from 2003, and it still
works...
whereas not everyone has a smartphone or tablet, so people are still
making sales.
once nearly everyone who wants a smartphone or tablet has one, then
sales will likely drop off significantly, with most new sales either
being to get new features/upgrades, or to replace lost/damaged units.
the issue is that current sales are a poor indicator of total units in-use.
so, the question is what the sales will look like once market saturation
is reached.
For the vast majority of users, PC effectively aren't programmable
either - almost all software run on 95% of PCs is written by a "few"
people who then run off "millions" of units.
but, there are lots more programmers on the PC, like just how many
people are involved in the creation of typical desktop software (such as
an OS, web-browser, of office suite).
whereas, say, with an alarm-clock (or watch, or microwave oven, ...),
pretty much the entire system (software-wise) is implemented by a single
person. many other units would be things like set-top boxes, broadband
routers, DSL or cable modems, ... again, most of which are largely
non-programmable.
with a system like Android, much of the "actual work" was likely done by
people who were originally targeting the PC (say, everyone involved in
writing the Linux kernel).
it is not clear if at this point the entire combined code-base of
dedicated Android software likely exceeds that which has gone into the
Linux kernel (somewhere around 40 Mloc last I checked).
also, given one can just wander around, and encounter people IRL who
write software (most often them being for C# or VB.NET or similar,
generally doing something involving an SQL-Server backend), indicates
that programmers (at least in some form) are not *that* rare.
I have thus far IRL only encountered a single person who was writing
apps for a mobile target, and this was for iOS (the person in question
being primarily an Objective-C developer). the person in question also
wrote software for OS/X.
or such...